Do film festivals predict Oscar nominations?

Following how TIFF, Cannes, and Berlinale show up on the ballot

By Haiyi Bi

With the 98th Academy Awards coming to the corner, which honors films released in 2025, the ceremony took place on Sunday, March 15, 2026. When thinking about Oscars, it's the biggest film award that happens every year, which includes 24 competitive categories and draws global attention.

Before each Oscars ceremony, a number of international film festivals have already taken place around the world. A few examples are shown in the chart above, including the Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF), the Cannes Film Festival (Festival de Cannes), the Berlin International Film Festival (Berlinale), the International Documentary Film Festival Amsterdam, the Clermont-Ferrand International Short Film Festival, and Frameline: San Francisco International LGBTQ+ Film Festival. Oftentimes, films will be sent to these festivals before being considered for Oscars.

TIFF stands out as the most common festival in this set of Oscar-nominated films, while Cannes and Berlinale appear less frequently and fluctuate from year to year. Smaller festivals show up only occasionally, which may reflect differences in festival size, programming focus, and how films move into awards season.

TIFF is not the earliest festival on the calendar. Cannes and Berlinale take place much earlier in the year. But TIFF's timing can be especially useful for awards season. Held in early September, it arrives just as fall releases begin and as studios and distributors start to build their campaigns for Oscars each year.

A strong premiere at TIFF can generate press and buzz close enough to Oscars voting to stay in the conversation, while still leaving time for distributors to plan a rollout, schedule screenings, and sustain momentum. That does not mean TIFF causes nominations. It simply shows up frequently in this dataset, and timing is one possible reason why.

"This is a recent phenomenon, TIFF doesn't always have the world premieres. Those tend to go to Venice, Cannes, or Telluride. But TIFF is a massive public festival, more of a testing ground. The common wisdom is that if your film wins the audience award at TIFF, that's a good sign." Beatrice Loayza, a film critic, as well as professor at School of Visual Arts specializing in film festivals explained.
"The Oscars used to be mostly Hollywood, but that's changed. There's definitely a relationship now between the big international festivals and awards season. When a film is deemed 'Oscar worthy,' the studio invests in everything: the marketing, the screenings, the whole campaign," Loayza said.

In the past five years, TIFF has increasingly overtaken Cannes as the preferred launchpad for Oscar-season campaigns, reflecting a broader shift in how studios and streaming platforms use international festivals to build awards momentum.